Atualizações do mercado semanal de energia por região - Arquivo

semana de edição : 4 de junho de 2020 (semana 23)

Mercados de energia

West , enquanto o vento forte e a geração hidrelétrica continua reduzindo os preços à vista em meados do C, o aumento das temperaturas na Califórnia e uma redução nas importações na linha de transmissão Palo Verde lhes deu um impulso no CAISO. Na semana passada, os preços do dia seguinte foram em média de US $ 25,76/MWh em SP15, mas apenas US $ 8,66/MWh em meados-c. Com muita neve restante nas elevações mais altas, a geração hidrelétrica no noroeste do Pacífico deve permanecer robusta nas primeiras duas semanas de junho e continuar suprimindo os preços do índice em meados de C. Por outro lado, as taxas de calor de termo aumentaram um pouco mais para aumentar o preço das faixas de ano civil em cerca de US $ 0,10 a US $ 0,50/mWh, dependendo do termo. A administração oceânica e atmosférica nacional prevê o clima muito mais quente que o normal nos próximos 7 a 10 dias, mas qualquer pico potencial nos preços à vista pode ser mitigado por condições de seca atualmente menos ameaçadoras que o normal para esta época do ano. As impressões do DA no Mass Hub subiram US $ 3/mwh ATC a partir da semana passada. Os preços da RT têm sido fortes nos horários fora do pico; O spread do DART fora do pico custa US $ 7/mWh na semana passada. O total de estoques agora está em 2.712 BCF, um aumento de 39,0% em relação ao ano anterior e 18,4% acima da média de cinco anos na mesma semana.

ERCOT Both real-time prices and the ORDC adder have stayed low this week. On the other hand, term heat rates have moved slightly higher to raise the price of calendar-year strips by some $0.10-$0.50/MWh, depending on the term. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has forecast weather much warmer than normal for the next 7-10 days, but any potential spike in spot prices may be mitigated by drought conditions currently less ominous than normal for this time of the year.

EAST As businesses start to reopen and the weather heats up, some upward movement has been seen in LMP prices, especially in ISONE. DA prints at Mass Hub are up by $3/MWh ATC from last week. RT prices have been strong in the off-peak hours; the off-peak DART spread is $7/MWh over this past week.

THE LONG GAME OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY

According to Deloitte Insights, U.S. consumer spending (adjusted for inflation) fell by 13.2 percent from March to April. The plunge was the sharpest monthly decline on record and touched virtually every area. Spending dropped by 16.7 percent for durable goods, by 15.5 percent for non-durable goods, and by 12.0 percent for services.

The reasons for the decrease in consumer spending may seem obvious but are rather nuanced, especially in light of the fact that, also in April, personal income in the U.S. actually grew at the fastest pace on record. Although wage income did shrink by 8.0 percent from March to April, total personal income, bolstered by emergency disbursements from the federal government, increased by 10.5 percent and real disposable income rose by 13.4 percent. That Americans, by and large, failed to dispose of this income during the month of April must mean one thing: They were mostly saving it. Essentially, all of that government assistance did not stimulate consumer spending, but that is understandable. After all, consumer spending was not the reason for those payments. The intent of the program was to provide needy Americans a financial safety net, which is clearly how they used it.

In addition to consumers’ sheer reticence to part with their money amid record unemployment claims creating uncertainty, the nosedive in spending may be mostly attributable to the plain inability to spend. As much of the economy remains constrained by shelter-in-place orders, many of the usual places to spend money—including restaurants, shops, movie theaters, sporting events, and tourist attractions—are simply unavailable.

Because consumer spending is, by far, the largest component of U.S. GDP, its weakening points to a dramatic drop in GDP for Q2. Fortunately, given Americans’ newfound savings and the budding return of economic activity (evidenced by Dawn Gilbertson’s report in USA TODAY this morning of the tremendously successful reopening of casinos in Las Vegas), a “V”-shaped recovery may be more likely than some have thought. The combination of pent-up demand and additional discretionary savings could provide a much needed lift to GDP for the balance of 2020 and bode well for 2021.

Claro, deve-se dizer que qualquer recuperação econômica estará bastante vazia sem uma recuperação social mais ampla dos eventos de coração no país na semana passada. A economia começou lentamente a retornar ao normal, mas pode ser ainda melhor do que foi ou nunca se todas as pessoas podem aprender a ser mais pacientes, mais compreensivos e mais empáticos entre si.